### Table 8: Interaction Tests — Demographics × Fiscal Variables

| Interaction | Framework | Interaction Coef | (SE) | N | R²/Pseudo-R² |
|:--|--:|--:|--:|--:|--:|
| OADR × Exp-Rev Gap | Logit→downgrade | 0.0904 | (0.4487) | 955 | 0.160 |
| OADR × Exp-Rev Gap | PanelGLS→rating | 0.0231 | (0.0478) | 955 | 0.040 |
| OADR × Debt/GDP | Logit→downgrade | -0.0245 | (0.0327) | 960 | 0.112 |
| OADR × Debt/GDP | PanelGLS→rating | -0.0476** | (0.0233) | 960 | 0.131 |
| r-g × OADR | Logit→downgrade | 0.2557 | (0.3429) | 833 | 0.126 |
| r-g × OADR | PanelGLS→rating | 0.1137** | (0.0472) | 833 | 0.065 |
| Global OADR × Exp-Rev Gap | Logit→downgrade | 1.7596 | (2.5975) | 982 | 0.139 |
| Global OADR × Exp-Rev Gap | PanelGLS→rating | 0.2403 | (0.2369) | 982 | -0.037 |
| OADR Spline(20%) × Debt | Logit→downgrade | -0.0459 | (0.0548) | 960 | 0.116 |
| OADR Spline(20%) × Debt | PanelGLS→rating | -0.0280 | (0.0335) | 960 | 0.158 |

*Tests whether demographic aging amplifies fiscal pressure on ratings. Logit: downgrade_any. PanelGLS: rating_numeric.*
